Friday, September 2, 2016

Ranking Arsenal's Summer Transfer Business

It was clear, in spite of whatever else the media-induced despondency expressed by Arsenal fans appear to be, that Arsene Wenger, working with his transfer "committee" (comprised of himself, Dick Law and Ivan Gazidis) identified their targets early. Wenger clearly wanted a defender, a midfielder and a striker. They narrowed their choices down to Mustafi, Xhaka and Vardy. At the end of the day, We got both Mustafi and Xhaka, but failed to land Vardy but instead ended up with Lucas Perez. How did it all happen?
Mustafi:
Arsenal contacted Valencia as soon as the window opened. Valencia quoted a fee of £21m. Arsenal did not actually put in a formal offer since they thought they could get him for cheaper because they have spoken to Mustafi's agent and were assured that Mustafi really wanted to join Arsenal. They made a decoy move by appearing to shift interests toward Jeremy Mathieu in the hope that Mustafi will then force the transfer through. But unfortunately, both Matesacker and Gabriel got injured and Mathieu (whom Arsenal never really contacted) got injured too.
Valencia knew they had Arsenal where they wanted them. When Arsenal returned with a formal offer, Valencia rejected it and asked for an increased offer of at least £35m or no deal. What ensued was a series of long negotiations. Valencia held all the aces. They never bulged from the £35m as Arsenal offers increased gradually from £17m to £20m to £25m to £28m. Eventually, they had to shell out the £35m. It took a long time but they got their man £14m more than they would have paid in early July.
Ranking: C. They got their man, but they had to do what Wenger hates doing - pay more than he believed the player was worth. And I agree with him on this one - Mustafi is too expensive at £35m.

Lucas Perez:
Wenger's thinking was clear about the striker choice. He needed a pacey striker (unlike Giroud), a strong striker (unlike Walcott) and a consistent scorer (unlike Giroud and Walcott). Vardy fit the bill perfectly: he is quick, and having just ended a season with 24 goals in a limited Leicester squad, is a consistent scorer. Also, playing in the Premier League means he knows about all the bully center backs in the PL and knows how to cope with them. In addition, at 29, he is mature enough but only has a couple of years left at the very top. This gives Arsenal's young strikers (Sanogo, Akpom and new boy Takuma Asano) time to show they are ready to be the next big thing at Arsenal. Then Vardy chose to remain at Leicester.
Then they turned to Lacazette. Wenger has always liked Lacazette. And Arsenal made contact with Lyon almost at the same time they were triggering Vardy's release clause but without any formal bid. Like Vardy, Lacazette is strong, quick and consistent. But the flip side is that he lacks PL experience and at 25, he is still young enough that he might limit the progress of the aforementioned younger strikers, something Wenger clearly holds very near and dear. This is exactly why Wenger ranked Lacazette below Vardy in terms of targets. But with Vardy staying at Leicester, Lacazette was the next best thing.
But in truth, neither Lyon nor Lacazette were interested in any deals. Arsenal made a firm €35m bid which was promptly rejected by Lyon. So reluctant was Lyon to sell that they did not even state a figure in their rejection. It was clear to Arsenal that Lyon was not going to sell. Arsenal tried their usual stuff of dropping covert hints in the media about the phantom pursuit of some other striker and some discreet investigation about whether Lacazette himself would want to move. It quickly became clear that Lyon were not selling, Lacazette was not moving and Arsenal were not ready to offer the kind of money that would tempt an unwilling club to even consider it.
As with the first 2, and contrary to the notion that it was a panic buy, Arsenal did contact Deportivo La Coruna almost at the same time as they contacted Leicester ad Lyon. Speaking after his signing was completed, Perez said:
Well, there was some contact when the transfer window opened. As always in football, clubs have to evaluate what they need, but they showed interest when they got in contact. Things happened more quickly towards the end of the window so it could be made official. (courtesy www.arsenal.com)
Perez is a late bloomer (like Vardy) and only recently converted from a winger to a striker (like Walcott attempted to do the past few years). But unlike Walcott, his conversion appears to have been more successful. He scored 17 goals in La Liga last year (his first full season as an out and out striker). He is quick, and at 27, he is not likely to present a major long term obstacle to the growth of Wenger's little striker kids. Plus being a late bloomer and unnatural striker, it is likely that he might get tired of the experiment and revert to his more natural winger role, leaving room for one of Akpom, Sanogo or Asano to step up.
Ranking: C+. £17m for a striker is relatively a reasonable price in today's market. But the fact that he is neither first nor second choice is still reflective Arsenal's inability or refusal to grab the market by the scruff of the neck. Top clubs do not wait for whatever shows up in the market. They go out and get what they want.

Granit Xhaka:
One of the more straight forward signings at Arsenal in recent years. Arsenal identified Xhaka as a target, contacted Borussia Monchengladbach, prices were agreed and contract was signed before Granit even flew out to join Switzerland for EURO 2016. This is how everyone hoped transfers would happen.
Ranking: A. An area that has needed reinforcement for some time. Deal was done early, the right money was paid for the right player and everyone is happy.

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